MAMMOTH REAL ESTATE SECOND QUARTER SALES RESULTS. BRING ON THE HEAT.

"Housing bubble threat grows," warns Bloomberg. "Surging home sales raise new housing bubble fears," cautions CNN Money. Many real estate markets have become "frothy," the Wall Street Journal's Money Watch site proclaims.

Wasn't it just last week clients were asking whether prices had hit bottom. Wasn't it just last year that some were still predicting real estate values would never come back. Frothy? 

Indeed, nearly 20% of homeowners nationwide owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Building permits issued for new home construction, while up steadily since 2009 are less than half what they were in the boom years 2004-2006. The widely followed Case/Schiller index of home values in 20 U.S. cities show prices still 24% below their 2006 peak.

Not much to fear there. What has caught the attention of economic prognosticators is the sudden, often dramatic turnaround in real estate demand in hot markets like California's that is pushing values higher. According to DataQuick, a real estate tracking firm, the median price of homes sold in June rose at the fastest year over year rate on record, a sizzling 28.5%. Further, the sale of million dollar homes in California reached the highest level in five years and, despite exceedingly low mortgage rates, a record number of homes were purchased with cash.

If the historical pattern holds true the "froth" evident in big city and coastal markets in California will soon bubble up in Mammoth. We can feel it. Listing and sales stats for Mammoth paint a picture of this percolating market.

18 homes changed hands last quarter, down 25% from the same period last year. The median sold price actually fell 8% to $604,500. But, only 53 homes are listed. None are bank owned or being sold short and well priced properties are selling quickly often attracting multiple offers.

Condos saw more excitement. Sales were up 74% from last year's second quarter. Although the median sold price dropped to $239,275 from last year's second quarter median of $251,000, a solid number of sales exceeded the properties appraised value or asking price. As a result of this strong demand just 119 condos are on the market. Two are bank owned and 7 are short sales.

Our market is in transition. Interest in Mammoth real estate is building. Look for the heat to grow.

SNOW

It's snowed on Mammoth Mountain. Since February 12, 27 inches have fallen on the ski slopes. The Mountain is reporting a total recorded snowfall for the season of 134 inches and a base of 3.5-5 feet. By most reports skiing is good.

Rumors of a massive March, a "miracle March" like we had in 1991, have been circulating for weeks. Just 42 inches of snow had dusted the Mountain's slopes until March of '91. Then it started snowing and didn't stop. Nearly 176 inches fell. Another March like that and we'd be close to the 340.5 inch average for the past 41 years--100 inches short of the 440.5 inches the last 10 years have averaged--but we could live with that.

SNOW AT LAST, SNOW AT LAST!

As of about 1:30 this afternoon,  the Mountain was reporting more than 4 feet of new snow had been deposited by a series of three recent storms. Snowfall totals for the year nearly doubled to around 100 inches, a scant 70 inches behind the 40 year average for this time of year. Even Bishop wasn't spared receiving 4 inches overnight.

Unfortunately, dry conditions return tomorrow and are forecast to stay with us through the rest of the month. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 50's by Thursday. Still, the weekend should offer the best skiing of the year. Time to wax 'em up.

FREE SKIING!

Main Lodge

Stump Alley

Mammoth Mountain is offering free skiing Friday, December 9, just to prove that  mostly man made snow conditions can be really, really good. Sign up for My Mammoth on the Mountain's website and you'll be qualified to pick up your free lift pass at any ticket booth.

Canyon Lodge

Eagle Base

The Mountain is also committed to opening Canyon Lodge and Little Eagle on December 14th. Night time temperatures this past week  averaged below 20 degrees and the snow making guns have been blowing  full tilt.

Still, I cruised Eagle Base and Canyon yesterday and discovered they're really going to have to open the nozzles to lay down enough base to make Little Eagle viable. But with forecasters calling for overnight temperatures in the sub-teens for the coming week, I wouldn't bet against it.

October Newsletter

Mammoth Real Estate: Third Quarter Results

After an early October snow storm Mammoth has been granted a reprieve. An interlude of quiet grace. Gilded low angled light sets the countryside aglow. Temperatures arc into the 70's. Aspens and willows, cottonwoods and birches turn out in luminescent golds and shocking reds.

Fishing, by some accounts, has gone off, like a pre-holiday two hour sale. One local tells of bolting down 395 on his lunch break, clomping through a mile of boggy meadow in waders to a Crowley Lake glory hole, making two casts, catching and releasing a 23 inch broad girthed 4 pound rainbow and returning to work without anyone being the wiser.

It's a swell time to be in Mammoth.

It's not a bad time to be looking for real estate either. Mortgage rates hover near 4%. Sellers are eager to move before the real snow hits, and marked down prices, paced by short sales and REOs, haven't looked this cheap since, well, since 2001.

80 condos changed hands in the third quarter of 2011, up 11% from last year's third quarter. The median price eased 16.6% to $223,000 from the same period in 2010. Bank and developer negotiated transactions accounted for 55% of sales while just 17.5% of the current 215 active condo listings are short sales, auction offerings or bank owned. One lucky Mammoth Realty Group client snapped up an 1849, 4 bedroom/3 bath condo for the pre-historic price of about $380,000.

20 homes sold in the third quarter, a 150% increase over last year, leaving just 66 active home listings. The median price slid about 10% to $530,000. Just 10.5% of the home market is made up of REOs or short sales. If you hurry you might still catch the glory of Mammoth's Fall and maybe even a piece of Mammoth real estate.

For the latest listings please contact me at: dphillips.dpbp@verizon.net.