MAMMOTH REAL ESTATE SECOND QUARTER SALES RESULTS. BRING ON THE HEAT.

"Housing bubble threat grows," warns Bloomberg. "Surging home sales raise new housing bubble fears," cautions CNN Money. Many real estate markets have become "frothy," the Wall Street Journal's Money Watch site proclaims.

Wasn't it just last week clients were asking whether prices had hit bottom. Wasn't it just last year that some were still predicting real estate values would never come back. Frothy? 

Indeed, nearly 20% of homeowners nationwide owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Building permits issued for new home construction, while up steadily since 2009 are less than half what they were in the boom years 2004-2006. The widely followed Case/Schiller index of home values in 20 U.S. cities show prices still 24% below their 2006 peak.

Not much to fear there. What has caught the attention of economic prognosticators is the sudden, often dramatic turnaround in real estate demand in hot markets like California's that is pushing values higher. According to DataQuick, a real estate tracking firm, the median price of homes sold in June rose at the fastest year over year rate on record, a sizzling 28.5%. Further, the sale of million dollar homes in California reached the highest level in five years and, despite exceedingly low mortgage rates, a record number of homes were purchased with cash.

If the historical pattern holds true the "froth" evident in big city and coastal markets in California will soon bubble up in Mammoth. We can feel it. Listing and sales stats for Mammoth paint a picture of this percolating market.

18 homes changed hands last quarter, down 25% from the same period last year. The median sold price actually fell 8% to $604,500. But, only 53 homes are listed. None are bank owned or being sold short and well priced properties are selling quickly often attracting multiple offers.

Condos saw more excitement. Sales were up 74% from last year's second quarter. Although the median sold price dropped to $239,275 from last year's second quarter median of $251,000, a solid number of sales exceeded the properties appraised value or asking price. As a result of this strong demand just 119 condos are on the market. Two are bank owned and 7 are short sales.

Our market is in transition. Interest in Mammoth real estate is building. Look for the heat to grow.

SNOW

It's snowed on Mammoth Mountain. Since February 12, 27 inches have fallen on the ski slopes. The Mountain is reporting a total recorded snowfall for the season of 134 inches and a base of 3.5-5 feet. By most reports skiing is good.

Rumors of a massive March, a "miracle March" like we had in 1991, have been circulating for weeks. Just 42 inches of snow had dusted the Mountain's slopes until March of '91. Then it started snowing and didn't stop. Nearly 176 inches fell. Another March like that and we'd be close to the 340.5 inch average for the past 41 years--100 inches short of the 440.5 inches the last 10 years have averaged--but we could live with that.

SNOW AT LAST, SNOW AT LAST!

As of about 1:30 this afternoon,  the Mountain was reporting more than 4 feet of new snow had been deposited by a series of three recent storms. Snowfall totals for the year nearly doubled to around 100 inches, a scant 70 inches behind the 40 year average for this time of year. Even Bishop wasn't spared receiving 4 inches overnight.

Unfortunately, dry conditions return tomorrow and are forecast to stay with us through the rest of the month. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 50's by Thursday. Still, the weekend should offer the best skiing of the year. Time to wax 'em up.

FREE SKIING!

Main Lodge

Stump Alley

Mammoth Mountain is offering free skiing Friday, December 9, just to prove that  mostly man made snow conditions can be really, really good. Sign up for My Mammoth on the Mountain's website and you'll be qualified to pick up your free lift pass at any ticket booth.

Canyon Lodge

Eagle Base

The Mountain is also committed to opening Canyon Lodge and Little Eagle on December 14th. Night time temperatures this past week  averaged below 20 degrees and the snow making guns have been blowing  full tilt.

Still, I cruised Eagle Base and Canyon yesterday and discovered they're really going to have to open the nozzles to lay down enough base to make Little Eagle viable. But with forecasters calling for overnight temperatures in the sub-teens for the coming week, I wouldn't bet against it.

October Newsletter

Mammoth Real Estate: Third Quarter Results

After an early October snow storm Mammoth has been granted a reprieve. An interlude of quiet grace. Gilded low angled light sets the countryside aglow. Temperatures arc into the 70's. Aspens and willows, cottonwoods and birches turn out in luminescent golds and shocking reds.

Fishing, by some accounts, has gone off, like a pre-holiday two hour sale. One local tells of bolting down 395 on his lunch break, clomping through a mile of boggy meadow in waders to a Crowley Lake glory hole, making two casts, catching and releasing a 23 inch broad girthed 4 pound rainbow and returning to work without anyone being the wiser.

It's a swell time to be in Mammoth.

It's not a bad time to be looking for real estate either. Mortgage rates hover near 4%. Sellers are eager to move before the real snow hits, and marked down prices, paced by short sales and REOs, haven't looked this cheap since, well, since 2001.

80 condos changed hands in the third quarter of 2011, up 11% from last year's third quarter. The median price eased 16.6% to $223,000 from the same period in 2010. Bank and developer negotiated transactions accounted for 55% of sales while just 17.5% of the current 215 active condo listings are short sales, auction offerings or bank owned. One lucky Mammoth Realty Group client snapped up an 1849, 4 bedroom/3 bath condo for the pre-historic price of about $380,000.

20 homes sold in the third quarter, a 150% increase over last year, leaving just 66 active home listings. The median price slid about 10% to $530,000. Just 10.5% of the home market is made up of REOs or short sales. If you hurry you might still catch the glory of Mammoth's Fall and maybe even a piece of Mammoth real estate.

For the latest listings please contact me at: dphillips.dpbp@verizon.net.

606 INCHES! MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL RECORD SHATTERED.

Maybe we should have seen it coming. After all the Mammoth ski season got off to the best possible start, a record 209 inches in December. But this was a La Niña year, unpredictable as a three year old at a petting zoo. January was subdued. February marginally above average. Then wham, this petulant March, that has weary locals reaching for liquor and analgesics. Snow piling beyond the seldom seen 500, snowballing toward the never seen 600 inches.  


My Mammoth Neighborhood

This morning, after 12 feet of new in the last 8 days, the record set in 2005-2006, a seemingly insurmountable 578.5 inches, is a goner. Mammoth Mountain Ski Area is reporting a season's snowfall total of 606 inches. Fifty feet, five stories, over two feet more than the previous high mark. Now March, at 178 inches, joins December in the record books. But wait, it's only March.

Five stories! The big five-o, the magic 600. Come on, don't be intimitdated. The streets are clear, ski patrol is setting charges to open up the whole mountain and the forecast is for warmer temperatures and clear skies. So grab your gear, pack up the car and don't forget your camera. It's gonna be great!

HEATING SYSTEM FAULT CLOSES THE WESTIN FOR A WEEK

Temporary Boiler On Line Thursday Morning

The Westin Monache, Mammoth's lone 4 star hotel, was closed Wednesday, January 19, due to smoke coming from the heating system's flue. The exhaust flue of the hotel's propane fired boiler overheated causing insulation material to smolder inside the nine story flue chase. Smoke was sucked into the building's ventilation system and circulated to many of the rooms. The boiler had to be shut down and guests were relocated to neighboring lodging.

After a week of cleanup and air filtering, the heating system was coupled to an industrial looking boiler chugging away outside the hotel entry. By the evening of Thursday the 27th, the Westin was ready to receive guests again.  An investigation is underway to sort out the cause of the malfunction.

2010 MAMMOTH REAL ESTATE SALES CLIMB

Sales were up last year as buyers discovered value in Mammoth real estate. 371 condos changed hands in 2010, a 25% jump over the 295 sold in 2009. The total value of sold condos climbed 15% to $131 million from 2009's total of $114 million.

Single family transactions were also higher. Escrows closed on 72 homes worth nearly $62 million in 2010 compared with 62 homes transacted in 2009 valued at $50 million.

The median price of sold properties eased last year, 14% for condos ($279,750), and 6% for single family homes ($625,000). Of more interest, the percentage of sales attributed to motivated sellers of "distressed" real estate shot up. Bank owned properties (REO's), short sales and auctioned real estate constituted 36% of condos and 39% of sold homes in 2010.

The flow of distressed properties to the market can be erratic and their shelf life brief. For instance, REO's and short sale listings comprise only 9% of homes and 17% of condos currently listed. These bargains often fall quickly to nimble buyers who've scouted the market and know what they're after.  So, while more troubled real estate assets are on the way, buyers should research the market, line up financing and enlist the aid of a REALTOR®.

Bargains Meet Buyers, 2002 Pricing Triggers Sales Increase

Local real estate prices continued to retreat across most sectors in the first half of the year. But in a sign the market is trending toward equilibrium these cheaper prices—often at 2002 levels—were greeted by eager buyers. 

Sales of condominiums grew  in the first six months by 44% over the same period last year—to 162 units, while closings of single family homes ratcheted 150% higher to 40 transactions. 

The increase in both condo and home sales was paced by short sales–the lender accepting less than is owed, and REO’s—banked owned inventory. In 2009‘s first half not one home sale fell into those categories, whereas they accounted for 42.5% of transactions in the first half of this year. Short sales and REO’s totaled just 25 of 2009’s first half condo sales but ballooned to 59 closings in the same period this year.

Meanwhile, the median price of condos sold in the second quarter of  2010 eased to $316,000 from $367,500 for the same period last year. While the median price of homes sold in the second quarter slipped to $625,000 from $749,500 for the second quarter of ’09.

As attractive as real estate prices are these days my clients want to know where prices will be tomorrow. Are we doomed to a double dip recession? To high unemployment and an endless cycle of foreclosures? 

In Mammoth short sales and REO’s total just 18% of current condo inventory and a mere 5% of listed homes. In July the number of Californians behind on their payments dipped to a 3 year low. 

And yet nationally over 4 million households are at least 60 days overdue on their mortgages. It’s impossible to tell how many of these properties will hit the market in the months ahead. One thing is certain, in Mammoth, buyers are finding current price levels attractive.

COLLEGE KIDS

A number of years ago my wife Barbara and I sold our house, bought a motor home and hit the road. We worked our way slowly up the Pacific coast visiting friends, sightseeing and hanging out. It was July by the time we reached Washington and the silver salmon were running near the mouth of the Columbia River. We holed up in a spartan campground near Ilwaco on the Washington side of  the river and I got outfitted with barrel bobbers, snelled hooks and frozen herring at a local tackle shop. The next day I caught a nice coho fishing off the large boulders of the Ilwaco jetty.

A week later  near the Canadian border I figured to get some final use out of my Washington state angler's license. Maybe slide our new canoe into one of the bays and pick up another salmon. So in the little town of Blaine I went looking for information at the only facsimile of a sporting goods store around, the Coast to Coast Hardware.

There was no one in the tackle section. No men around at all. Just two older women working on a Weed-Eater display. One was on an aluminum step-ladder struggling to hang the machine by heavy mono-filiment fishing line. I sidled up to her ladder.

"Excuse me, would you have any idea how the fishing has been?"

"Blanche?" she hollered over her shoulder.

Blanche reappeared from the storage room with a long handled framing hammer.

"Blanche, how's fishing been?"

Blanche passed the hammer up to Marge and sized me up. "What are you after?" She stepped right next to me as if trying to guess by my scent.

"Salmon, steelhead, sea run cutthroats. Whatever's in," I said backing away.

"Slow." She motioned for Marge to move her nail our farther and triangulate the suspension.

"They must be catching something," I prodded.

"There might be a few but it's slow. Real slow. Been slow all year."

"Well, what have they been using?"

"I don't think much of anything's been working, eh Marge?"

"How's this look?" Marge held the line out. Leaning. Precarious. I found myself holding onto the ladder.

"Fine," Blanche said. Then she turned back to me with a look that suggested only a peevish discussion could follow.

I pressed ahead. "Are there other tackle shops in town? Maybe someone's heard how it's been in the last few days." Suddenly the ladder flexed. Marge lashed out awkwardly with the long handled hammer, fanning on the nail and punching a clean hole in the ceiling. Drywall dust and chipped paint settled on my arm.

"Damn!"

"Don't worry about it. Try closer in"

Marge fished another nail from her teeth, held it at a comfortable distance and set it with a single temperate blow.

"Marge, anyone down to the marina know about fishing since Dave Gundarson's laid up?"

"Dave Gundarson? There's a human tragedy." Marge climbed down the ladder. She looked even older up close. Her lipstick, Senior Citizen Red, scrawled two fantastic arches above her mouth like some garish entry to a 1940's tunnel of love. "Crabbing out on Lou Myrek's boat," she said out of the tunnel. "Some college kid on the winch. Didn't catch Dave 'til he was halfway through the pulley. Damn kid was probably asleep. Or even drunk."

"A real shame," Blanche said.

"Dave never got right."

"No, he's not right yet."

"College kids!"

"Mind or body."

"Like a crab himself now."

"Yes. All hunched over on that broken side."

"Don't blame him for drinking."

"I can't blame him."

"A real pity though. Never missed a day's work in his life."

"Wife and kids run off to Texas. Back to her family, I guess."

"Never missed a day and never complained."

"Anyway, she couldn't stand it. And the two boys just barely along in grammar school."

"College kids!"

"No one deserves that. She should have stuck with her man."

"Come up on vacation with their daddies and think it'd be a lark to crew a boat."

Blanche looked at Marge. "Don't any of 'em know work or responsibility."

"Had it all handed."

"Hook, line and sinker."

"And bait."

"Especially bait."

The Weed-Eater hung there green and shiny and ready for action. It seemed out of  place in that rugged rural community with few lawns. The forest pushed right up to where salt grass and sand dunes meet the ocean. I thanked the ladies and headed out of the store. Blanche followed me. At the door I turned to nod goodbye.

"It's been slow here," she said in a distant thoughtful way. "Real slow."

SALES UP, INTEREST RATES DOWN, TAX CREDITS EVEN

New numbers from the National Association of Realtors seem to suggest that the US real estate market has turned the corner. Sales of homes and condos for April 2010 were 22.8% higher than for the same period last year while median prices rose in almost 60% of US metropolitan markets. Lawrence Yun, the frequently optimistic chief economist for the NAR said, "The housing price correction appears essentially over."

While admitting that April's strong numbers were likely influenced by an expiring $8000 Federal tax credit and acknowledging that "there will be some fallback" in the next few months, Yun cited near record low interest rates (around 5% for a 30 year fixed rate loan), growing buyer confidence and an improving economy in calling for a turnaround.

To counter the expiring Federal credit, California is offering $200 million in state tax credits to first time buyers or buyers of new homes. The credit, up to $10,000 or 5% of the purchase price whichever is less, only apply to purchases of principal residences. Qualifying properties include condos, mobile homes, and single family residences but not homes constructed by taxpayers.

Still, mortgage delinquency rates continue to weigh on real estate price gains. Figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association last week show that the number of delinquent mortgages across the country has not declined much in the last year. This could portend a steady stream of foreclosures.

In a news release the MBA's chief economist, Jay Brinkmann, offered tepid encouragement,"If mortgage delinquencies are not yet clearly improving, it also appears they are not getting worse." On the plus side according to Brinkman, California's mortgage picture, once among the bleakest, is now getting brighter.

SOMETHING AFFORDABLE

I'd never abandoned clients before but I was going to now. "Get out!" I said puffing myself up like Arnold Schwartzenegger in The Terminator. "And take Scooter with you."

I wanted to see the look on their faces when it registered that I retained some measure of self respect, that I wasn't going to cling pathetically to the slim possibility of making a sale. At any cost.

"But...," Mrs. Brown pleaded, "Couldn't  you at least take us back to our car?"

"Now!" I ordered pulling abruptly to the curb and stomping on the brakes.

"Harold!" Mrs. Brown, thinking about the long walk back to my office, the humiliation, begged for her husband to intercede.

"Listen, I admit things could have gone better back there but really, there wasn't any serious damage and we'll replace the stuffed pigeon. Won't we Helen."

Helen nodded but doubt clouded her face as she imagined the replacement's actual cost.

"I found this," Burton said sheepishly as he passed a video game cartridge over the seat.

"What a nice thing to do, Burty," Mrs. Brown said. "I'm sure the owner's children will be very glad you found this." She gave her young son a big hug.

"Why don't we take you to lunch," Mr. Brown suggested, all business suddenly. "I'd like to discuss financing with you." He turned to his family in the back seat. "How's lunch sound gang? Who wants a Big Mac?"

Jenny and Burton cheered. Mrs. Brown pulled herself between the front seats and looked up at me with large spaniel eyes. "Big Mac?" she prompted with a nod and a grin.

I wanted to see them in my rear view mirror standing there, chastened as I pulled away, but...

It all started ordinarily enough. The well traveled tan Suburban lurched into our lot and a teen aged boy and girl spilled out looking green and road sick. Mr. Brown, a balding man with an American paunch, strode in carrying one of our real estate guides. Mrs. Brown, her treated blond hair a frizzy cloud, made a bee line for the bathroom. They wanted to see houses. Big pricey houses.

It had been a slow morning and my antennae were down. Thinking back on it now their manner had been too casual, too offhanded. But, as I said, it had been slow and you never know.

Mr. Brown asked if we could take my car since theirs was stuffed with bikes, fishing gear, and luggage. And did I mind if Scooter rode along. Scooter was what I'd call a yappy dog, "lively", I believe the Browns put it. A small foreign short hair bred for rodent work.

I haven't always disliked dogs. We had dogs when I was a boy. Dim witted, affectionate labs. But after living in Mammoth in a home with the only lawn in a five block radius I developed an aversion. Thoughtful owners would walk their pets by to introduce them to my yard and admire the way their animals ripped at the sod in mock burial of their "duty".

No, I'd learned to dislike dogs. But I wanted to bond with my clients so I told them Scooter could ride in the back of my Subaru Outback wagon.

We looked at a couple of houses without incident. Jenny, maybe fifteen and Burton thirteen traipsed behind us acting bored and exhausted as I expected they would. These were nice mountain homes but without family features like a back yard or game room.

Finally, I pulled into the driveway of the property I'd been saving. There was a large yard in back with swings and the yard bordered a deep pine woods. The kids bounded out of the car before I'd come to a stop. Scooter shot over the back seat after them.

"Well, it looks like the kids have cast their vote," I said.

Opening onto the back yard was a family room with a pool table, large screen TV and Nintendo. I showed the Browns the two downstairs bedrooms with a Jack and Jill bath and then took them upstairs to the living quarters. Personal treasures of the owners decorated dressers, coffee tables and the fireplace mantle.

Mr. Brown tested the couch. Mrs. Brown examined the kitchen. We heard giggling downstairs as the kids came in and began to shoot pool. The Browns looked relieved that their children had found entertainment.

"Look Harold they have Lennox china. Did you say this was a second home?" Mrs. Brown was going through the cupboards one by one.

"Yes, the owners only use it a couple weeks a year." Agents love to see their clients settle in, get comfortable, start to decorate. It was an $800,000 home after all and automatically I began to calculate my commission.

Mr. Brown had turned on the TV and was clicking through the channels. He stopped at Oprah. There was a transexual on. It appeared that she'd discovered she was a lesbian. Mrs. Brown headed for the master bedroom. Outside Scooter had treed a cat and was circling the trunk barking wildly.

"My word, have you ever seen so many shoes?" Mrs. Brown called from the master closet.

On Oprah the transexual was in tears. A lesbian! If she'd just stayed a man. There would have been so many more possibilities. "Gee whiz," Mr. Brown got up and located a beer in the fridge. Downstairs the kids were fighting over a video game.

"I got you again," I could hear Burton say. "This isn't even fun."

"My button got stuck," Jenny screamed. "I couldn't move."

"Liar, liar, pants on fire."

"It sticks. You try to win with this controller."

"Harry, come here. I think they have a bidet," Mrs. Brown called from the master suite.

"A bidet?…in a minute. I want to see if this person gets a date." I heard the master bathroom door close quietly.

"See you're dead. It doesn't matter. You're just a dumb girl. Girls can't play video games."

"I hate you!" Jenny screamed. I heard the game controller smash against a wall.

"Nice going, Jenny," Burton yelled.

Just then the doorbell rang. I ran downstairs to answer it. It was an animal control officer looking put out. I ran back upstairs to get Mr. Brown. "Have one of the kids bring Scooter in," he said without taking his eyes off the TV. Then yelling, "Burty can't you hear Scooter barking." I went back downstairs. The officer had his ticket book out.

"I'm a REALTOR®. I'm just showing the house," I said. "These folks are from out of town."

"Well you're not. Should have told them about the leash law. You can settle up with them."

"Come on. I'm not a dog fan myself. You could gas this one for all I care. Besides, one of the kids is fetching the animal now. We'll keep him inside." In fact no one was doing anything and Scooter was still barking and circling.

The officer looked at me. "So, you're the agent?" I nodded. "Well you're all a pack of liars far as I'm concerned. An agent ripped me off when I bought my house. Told me the roof would be fixed and nothing happened. Never returns my phone calls now. Leaks like hell. Going to cost me two grand not counting the carpet. And furniture."

"I'm sorry you had a bad experience. But that wasn't me. Besides, you should have some legal recourse. If there was an agreement to fix the roof the seller will have to pay. It's the law."

"So is this," he said. "Now you want to give me your name or do I have to call in your plates?"

I stuffed the ticket in my pocket and slunk back upstairs. Mr. Brown had helped himself to another beer and was snacking on some peanuts.

"Look," Mr. Brown jumped up and pointed at the screen. "I told you she'd get a date!"  He munched his peanuts excitedly. "And a nice looking college girl, too."

"That's really something," I muttered.

Harold drained his beer and slammed the empty can down on the lamp table knocking a stuffed California quail onto the floor. The brittle thin legs snapped in two.

"Oops, damn pigeon." He tried to shove the parts back together. Feathers settled on the carpet "Helen, we ought to go." He held the bird parts and two empty beer cans out to me. "Helen!"

Helen emerged from the bedroom looking refreshed. "This is a very nice home, don't you think Harold? What happened to the bird?"

"Accident," Harold said. "Was this the last place you had for us? Burty, Jenny, we're leaving."

"Yeah."

"Kind of expensive don't you think."

"Well we're in a strengthening market, and if you consider the National Forest location…"

"Saddle up troopers," he yelled.

"…it's actually quite a bargain." But my heart was no longer in it.

The kids were still fighting as they climbed into the car. Scooter had rolled in something and Helen and Harold were busy chatting about the horse back ride they'd scheduled for the afternoon. Finally, Harold turned to me. "Be sure to give me your card. You know what we're looking for so stay in touch."

"I'm not sure I do, really. Four bedrooms, 3 baths with a family room?" I gestured to the home we'd just seen.

"Great!"

Driving back through The Village with all the windows down I had my Arnold moment. I just snapped. I pulled to the curb and braked so hard everyone slammed against their seat belts. "Get out!"  I wanted to see them in my rear view mirror huddled on the sidewalk, chastened as I pulled away.

No one moved.

One summer I lived in Tangier, Morocco in a small apartment a friend of my brother's had found for me. It was in the medina, the old quarter, and not far from the friend's antique and curio shop. I used to hang out in the shop and watch Majid work the tourists from the cruise ships anchored in the bay. He had an infallible sense of who was  really shopping and who was merely playing at haggling. Majid would cleverly outrage the pretenders and expertly negotiate with the buyers.

Finally, one by one the Browns got out of the car. Scooter jumped down from behind the back seat and slunk onto the sidewalk, his tail tucked.

Before closing the door Harold leaned in, "We're just looking for something affordable," he said. "Is that so bad?"

No one told me selling real estate was going to be easy.  Or even enjoyable. You take whoever walks through the door. You do your best. Sometimes you make a sale. Sometimes you get a Big Mac. I didn't talk about financing with the Browns. We didn't talk about much of anything.

HEDGE FUND GIANT SAYS, "BUY!"

John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who pulled down nearly $4 billion by making bets against the housing market in 2007, has turned bullish on real estate. In a May 10 online article for Market Watch, Alistair Barr wrote that Paulson is calling for appreciation of 3% to 5% in home prices this year and another 8% to 12% in 2011.

"My advice to all Americans—if you don't own a home today now's the time to buy one," Paulson said. "If you already own one, now's the time to buy another one. If you already own two, it's time to help your children buy a home."

The comments were made in a conference call Monday to investors in his $34 billion Paulson and Company hedge funds. Paulson noted that when incomes, mortgage rates and median prices are considered, homes are at their most affordable levels in 50 years.

"My advice to all Americans—if you don't own a home today now's the time to buy one...If you already own one, now's the time to buy another one."

He cited the 290,000 jobs added  to payrolls last month, low mortgage rates and rising corporate profits in predicting 4-5% GDP growth in 2011 and a sharp V shaped economic recovery.

Data released by the National Association of Realtors last week support Paulson's optimism. Home prices rose in most U.S. cities in the first quarter, loan delinquencies declined and the number of pending sales were up 21.1% over March of 2009.

Of course, the future is never entirely clear and not everyone is so sanguine. Many point out that first time home buyer Federal tax credits, which expired last month, likely skewed sales figures higher. And troubled mortgage behemoths Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae both expect housing to show weakness through the rest of 2010. Still, as John Paulson's success illustrates, those who anticipate the market may reap big rewards.

PACE OF REO'S, SHORT SALES SLOWS

Have real estate values in Mammoth turned the corner? Are foreclosures drying up? Buyers and Sellers facing the old buy, sell, or hold conundrum should take note of the following year to date sales and listing figures. Since January 1st, 165 condos have sold or are in escrow (291 sold in all of '09). Of those 29 were REO's (lender owned) and another 37 were short sales–40% of this year's total. 40 homes have gone into escrow or sold since the first of the year (65 homes sold in '09). 8 were REO's and 8 were short sales, also 40% of the total.

The median price of sold condos edged up in the first 4 months to $328,000 from $325,000 last year, a statistical wash. While the median price of homes sold this year eased to $731,000 from 2009's median of $799,567. That's an 8.5% drop. Although median prices are a coarse market metric especially in a small sample, it's fair to say that home prices are still slipping while condo values are stabilizing.

Where do we go from here? Of the 175 condos currently for sale, just 5 are REO's and 27 are short sale listings. 66 homes are on the market and only 4 are REO's or short sale listings. Does this mean that the flood of distressed properties has abated? Any slowing would be good news for Mammoth property owners and portend firming prices, but the picture is still not entirely clear.

Barclays Capital in New York calculated that as of the end of February 4.6 million homeowners nationwide were 90 days late on their mortgage payments according to an April 28 online Wall Street Journal report. But the experts can't seem to agree on how many of those delinquent home loans will translate into foreclosures or short sales. Barclays thinks 1.6 million this year and in 2011, and another 1.5 million in 2012.

Mammoth with its limited private real estate base is a unique market and may be somewhat immune to national foreclosure trends, but Buyers still need to shop smart. And if you are a Seller, listen to your REALTOR® when it comes to setting an asking price. We're selling properties priced right, but set your sights too high and you may end up chasing the market down.

MAMMOTH BOASTS A 15 FOOT BASE

Mammoth Mountain has recorded 515 inches of snowfall this season, the most since the record setting 578 inch 2005-2006 season. The average annual snowfall since 1969 is 342.5 inches and this winter topped the averages for every month except November. Although Canyon Lodge and Eagle Express will be closing after this weekend the Mountain recently announced that, with a 15 foot base, operations at the Main Lodge would continue through the Fourth of July. So don't put those skis away just yet.

Federal and State Home Buyers Tax Credits

The popular Federal first time home buyer's tax credit is due to expire soon. To qualify for as much as $8000 in tax credits, buyers of principal residences must open valid escrows by the end of April and close the purchase by the end of June.

A buyer is eligible for the full credit (the lower of 10% of the purchase price or $8000) if the home being acquired is their first in the last three years. A smaller credit of up to $6500 is available to those who've owned a home five out of the last eight years. Purchase prices must be below $800,000 and buyer incomes can not exceed $250,000 per couple or $125,000 for individuals. There's a nice synopsis on the National Association of Homebuilders site. And be sure to talk with your accountant.

In more good news for home buyers Governor Schwarzenegger was expected to sign a bill authorizing credits for Californians buying their first home. The credit would apply to new or existing homes purchased between May 1, 2010 and the end of the year or who enter into a purchase contract on or before December 31, 2010 and close on the transaction by August 1, 2011. The credit is the lesser of 5% of the purchase price or $10,000. The credit will be doled out over three consecutive years in equal amounts. California requires buyers to live in their new primary residence for 2 years (the Federal requirement is 3 years). Again, talk with your tax man about the details of the new California program. Click the link for a C.A.R. side by side comparison of state and Federal plans. And talk to me about qualifying homes in Mammoth!

THEY'RE BAA-AACK.

It's the return of the Kool-Aid drinkers. The starry eyed marketeers. Yes, the fractionals.

Never mind that Mammoth has been a graveyard for every "fractional" ownership development since, well, forever.  Tyvek paper flaps in the breeze on unfinished fractional homes at Talus on the 10th fairway at Sierra Star. Tanavista, 45 units at The Village pared into "value priced" quarter share fractionals, is still nothing but dirt. It's sales team, once armed with high priced brochures, architectural renderings, and reservation instruments quietly scurried out of town after but a few month's in 2007. Altis, visioned as 24 exclusive slopeside townhomes—fractionalized into 1/7th's priced from the mid $500's—parachuted marketing hot shots in (from where, Tahoe?) just as real estate was poised for it's black diamond plunge. Proud Altis has been reduced to a pair of wholly owned duplexes. And now 80/50, near the Village Gondola, which has been operating on the thin vapor of 54 sold fractions--out of 224--since it first rolled out to much hoopla in 2006, is back.

I know it's back because iStar Financial, the new owner, treated me to lunch. Matt Toomey, the highly regarded chef at the highly regarded Whoa Nellie Deli in Lee Vining, served local agents ceviche, fish tacos, sliders and ceasar salad in one of 80/50's 3 bedroom "residences". Reminded me of the old days. Back when the Ritz team tried to convince us over lamb chops and potatoes lyonnaise that despite tumbling real estate values the Ritz was a different product—uncompromised quality—with a different clientele—rich folk willing to pay the $1400/s.f. tariff. Indeed, the Ritz team was freshly returned from a Southern California blitz where they'd collected another 30 reservations! Reservations from aristocrats begging to be unburdened of their surfeit of cash. The Ritz property was foreclosed on two years later. Pass the chops.

Despite the familiar treats, the 80/50 presentation felt different. It was a somewhat staid affair. Katie Morris representing the new owner, iStar Financial, was pregnant and resolute. She and her "dream team" of managers and sales staff would persevere to the end. iStar had the financial clout—38 million square feet of commercial real estate, $12 billion in assets—to see this through. It was a far cry from the Amway-like cheerleading at the original launch where glassy eyed salesfolk got so pumped up on Kool-Aid and testimonials they were ready to jump off the roof supported by nothing but talking points (some did and spent time in veritable traction).

After lunch Elizabeth McGuire, 80/50's sales team leader, gave us a tour. The sun shone brilliantly on the three steamy roof top spas. The March air was crisp and clear. Below us a private sky bridge spanned to the Village Gondola. Inside chromed exercise equipment stood idle, poised for guests. Later the valet smiled and waved as we drove off with our packets of marketing tools.

Back at my office I practiced batting away objections from hypothetical buyers and realized that no one at the luncheon had discussed financials. Try as I would one number kept returning like a meat bee to a bar-be-que, HOA dues. The 3 bedroom fractions are priced at $299,000, the dues run $12,400 per year. An owner is guaranteed 4 weeks annually. That's over $3000 per week in dues. Jeez. Even when you factor in the ability to exchange unused weeks for stays at other Elite Alliance properties (for a $250 fee) it seems impossible to rationalize.

But maybe that's just me. One bedroom fractions are priced at $125,000; 2 bedrooms, at $175,000. For more information give me a call. I've got your Kool-Aid. Grape. Lot's of sugar.

Gran Fondo Sportful

The before

                                                                          And after

Pictures of my wife Barbara and I at the 131 mile Gran Fondo Sportful bike race through the Dolomites out of Feltre, Italy last summer. Italy has nearly 250 of these mass start bike races each year, some attracting as many as 12,000 competitiors. Hard to tell but one of us made the podium!