606 INCHES! MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL RECORD SHATTERED.

Maybe we should have seen it coming. After all the Mammoth ski season got off to the best possible start, a record 209 inches in December. But this was a La Niña year, unpredictable as a three year old at a petting zoo. January was subdued. February marginally above average. Then wham, this petulant March, that has weary locals reaching for liquor and analgesics. Snow piling beyond the seldom seen 500, snowballing toward the never seen 600 inches.  


My Mammoth Neighborhood

This morning, after 12 feet of new in the last 8 days, the record set in 2005-2006, a seemingly insurmountable 578.5 inches, is a goner. Mammoth Mountain Ski Area is reporting a season's snowfall total of 606 inches. Fifty feet, five stories, over two feet more than the previous high mark. Now March, at 178 inches, joins December in the record books. But wait, it's only March.

Five stories! The big five-o, the magic 600. Come on, don't be intimitdated. The streets are clear, ski patrol is setting charges to open up the whole mountain and the forecast is for warmer temperatures and clear skies. So grab your gear, pack up the car and don't forget your camera. It's gonna be great!

HEATING SYSTEM FAULT CLOSES THE WESTIN FOR A WEEK

Temporary Boiler On Line Thursday Morning

The Westin Monache, Mammoth's lone 4 star hotel, was closed Wednesday, January 19, due to smoke coming from the heating system's flue. The exhaust flue of the hotel's propane fired boiler overheated causing insulation material to smolder inside the nine story flue chase. Smoke was sucked into the building's ventilation system and circulated to many of the rooms. The boiler had to be shut down and guests were relocated to neighboring lodging.

After a week of cleanup and air filtering, the heating system was coupled to an industrial looking boiler chugging away outside the hotel entry. By the evening of Thursday the 27th, the Westin was ready to receive guests again.  An investigation is underway to sort out the cause of the malfunction.

2010 MAMMOTH REAL ESTATE SALES CLIMB

Sales were up last year as buyers discovered value in Mammoth real estate. 371 condos changed hands in 2010, a 25% jump over the 295 sold in 2009. The total value of sold condos climbed 15% to $131 million from 2009's total of $114 million.

Single family transactions were also higher. Escrows closed on 72 homes worth nearly $62 million in 2010 compared with 62 homes transacted in 2009 valued at $50 million.

The median price of sold properties eased last year, 14% for condos ($279,750), and 6% for single family homes ($625,000). Of more interest, the percentage of sales attributed to motivated sellers of "distressed" real estate shot up. Bank owned properties (REO's), short sales and auctioned real estate constituted 36% of condos and 39% of sold homes in 2010.

The flow of distressed properties to the market can be erratic and their shelf life brief. For instance, REO's and short sale listings comprise only 9% of homes and 17% of condos currently listed. These bargains often fall quickly to nimble buyers who've scouted the market and know what they're after.  So, while more troubled real estate assets are on the way, buyers should research the market, line up financing and enlist the aid of a REALTOR®.

Bargains Meet Buyers, 2002 Pricing Triggers Sales Increase

Local real estate prices continued to retreat across most sectors in the first half of the year. But in a sign the market is trending toward equilibrium these cheaper prices—often at 2002 levels—were greeted by eager buyers. 

Sales of condominiums grew  in the first six months by 44% over the same period last year—to 162 units, while closings of single family homes ratcheted 150% higher to 40 transactions. 

The increase in both condo and home sales was paced by short sales–the lender accepting less than is owed, and REO’s—banked owned inventory. In 2009‘s first half not one home sale fell into those categories, whereas they accounted for 42.5% of transactions in the first half of this year. Short sales and REO’s totaled just 25 of 2009’s first half condo sales but ballooned to 59 closings in the same period this year.

Meanwhile, the median price of condos sold in the second quarter of  2010 eased to $316,000 from $367,500 for the same period last year. While the median price of homes sold in the second quarter slipped to $625,000 from $749,500 for the second quarter of ’09.

As attractive as real estate prices are these days my clients want to know where prices will be tomorrow. Are we doomed to a double dip recession? To high unemployment and an endless cycle of foreclosures? 

In Mammoth short sales and REO’s total just 18% of current condo inventory and a mere 5% of listed homes. In July the number of Californians behind on their payments dipped to a 3 year low. 

And yet nationally over 4 million households are at least 60 days overdue on their mortgages. It’s impossible to tell how many of these properties will hit the market in the months ahead. One thing is certain, in Mammoth, buyers are finding current price levels attractive.

COLLEGE KIDS

A number of years ago my wife Barbara and I sold our house, bought a motor home and hit the road. We worked our way slowly up the Pacific coast visiting friends, sightseeing and hanging out. It was July by the time we reached Washington and the silver salmon were running near the mouth of the Columbia River. We holed up in a spartan campground near Ilwaco on the Washington side of  the river and I got outfitted with barrel bobbers, snelled hooks and frozen herring at a local tackle shop. The next day I caught a nice coho fishing off the large boulders of the Ilwaco jetty.

A week later  near the Canadian border I figured to get some final use out of my Washington state angler's license. Maybe slide our new canoe into one of the bays and pick up another salmon. So in the little town of Blaine I went looking for information at the only facsimile of a sporting goods store around, the Coast to Coast Hardware.

There was no one in the tackle section. No men around at all. Just two older women working on a Weed-Eater display. One was on an aluminum step-ladder struggling to hang the machine by heavy mono-filiment fishing line. I sidled up to her ladder.

"Excuse me, would you have any idea how the fishing has been?"

"Blanche?" she hollered over her shoulder.

Blanche reappeared from the storage room with a long handled framing hammer.

"Blanche, how's fishing been?"

Blanche passed the hammer up to Marge and sized me up. "What are you after?" She stepped right next to me as if trying to guess by my scent.

"Salmon, steelhead, sea run cutthroats. Whatever's in," I said backing away.

"Slow." She motioned for Marge to move her nail our farther and triangulate the suspension.

"They must be catching something," I prodded.

"There might be a few but it's slow. Real slow. Been slow all year."

"Well, what have they been using?"

"I don't think much of anything's been working, eh Marge?"

"How's this look?" Marge held the line out. Leaning. Precarious. I found myself holding onto the ladder.

"Fine," Blanche said. Then she turned back to me with a look that suggested only a peevish discussion could follow.

I pressed ahead. "Are there other tackle shops in town? Maybe someone's heard how it's been in the last few days." Suddenly the ladder flexed. Marge lashed out awkwardly with the long handled hammer, fanning on the nail and punching a clean hole in the ceiling. Drywall dust and chipped paint settled on my arm.

"Damn!"

"Don't worry about it. Try closer in"

Marge fished another nail from her teeth, held it at a comfortable distance and set it with a single temperate blow.

"Marge, anyone down to the marina know about fishing since Dave Gundarson's laid up?"

"Dave Gundarson? There's a human tragedy." Marge climbed down the ladder. She looked even older up close. Her lipstick, Senior Citizen Red, scrawled two fantastic arches above her mouth like some garish entry to a 1940's tunnel of love. "Crabbing out on Lou Myrek's boat," she said out of the tunnel. "Some college kid on the winch. Didn't catch Dave 'til he was halfway through the pulley. Damn kid was probably asleep. Or even drunk."

"A real shame," Blanche said.

"Dave never got right."

"No, he's not right yet."

"College kids!"

"Mind or body."

"Like a crab himself now."

"Yes. All hunched over on that broken side."

"Don't blame him for drinking."

"I can't blame him."

"A real pity though. Never missed a day's work in his life."

"Wife and kids run off to Texas. Back to her family, I guess."

"Never missed a day and never complained."

"Anyway, she couldn't stand it. And the two boys just barely along in grammar school."

"College kids!"

"No one deserves that. She should have stuck with her man."

"Come up on vacation with their daddies and think it'd be a lark to crew a boat."

Blanche looked at Marge. "Don't any of 'em know work or responsibility."

"Had it all handed."

"Hook, line and sinker."

"And bait."

"Especially bait."

The Weed-Eater hung there green and shiny and ready for action. It seemed out of  place in that rugged rural community with few lawns. The forest pushed right up to where salt grass and sand dunes meet the ocean. I thanked the ladies and headed out of the store. Blanche followed me. At the door I turned to nod goodbye.

"It's been slow here," she said in a distant thoughtful way. "Real slow."

SALES UP, INTEREST RATES DOWN, TAX CREDITS EVEN

New numbers from the National Association of Realtors seem to suggest that the US real estate market has turned the corner. Sales of homes and condos for April 2010 were 22.8% higher than for the same period last year while median prices rose in almost 60% of US metropolitan markets. Lawrence Yun, the frequently optimistic chief economist for the NAR said, "The housing price correction appears essentially over."

While admitting that April's strong numbers were likely influenced by an expiring $8000 Federal tax credit and acknowledging that "there will be some fallback" in the next few months, Yun cited near record low interest rates (around 5% for a 30 year fixed rate loan), growing buyer confidence and an improving economy in calling for a turnaround.

To counter the expiring Federal credit, California is offering $200 million in state tax credits to first time buyers or buyers of new homes. The credit, up to $10,000 or 5% of the purchase price whichever is less, only apply to purchases of principal residences. Qualifying properties include condos, mobile homes, and single family residences but not homes constructed by taxpayers.

Still, mortgage delinquency rates continue to weigh on real estate price gains. Figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association last week show that the number of delinquent mortgages across the country has not declined much in the last year. This could portend a steady stream of foreclosures.

In a news release the MBA's chief economist, Jay Brinkmann, offered tepid encouragement,"If mortgage delinquencies are not yet clearly improving, it also appears they are not getting worse." On the plus side according to Brinkman, California's mortgage picture, once among the bleakest, is now getting brighter.